Blogger asks: How long can pubs afford to print?

Widely read blogger Alan Mutter has crunched reams of data to arrive at his sobering conclusion about the future of newspapers. Much of his analysis today rests on the outlook for advertising revenue this year and beyond. He offers three scenarios:

• Optimistic Case – Ad sales drop 10% in 2010, are unchanged in 2011, and then grow at 2% a year in 2012 and each subsequent year.
• Middle Case – Ad sales fall 15% in 2011, slide 5% in 2012, and then decline 2% in 2012 and each subsequent year.
• Pessimistic Case – Ad sales plunge 20% in 2010, drop 15% in 2011, and then decline 5% in 2012 and each subsequent year.

Now, it's your turn: Which of Mutter's three scenarios best describes the outlook for the New York Times Co.? Please post your replies in the comments section, below. To e-mail confidentially, write jimhopkins[at]gmail[dot-com]; see Tipsters Anonymous Policy in the rail, upper right.